Stocks and Holding Periods
See how longer holding periods reduce the range of best and worst returns on stocks.
The best annual rate of return for all 1 year periods (trailing returns by month) in the S&P/TSX Total Return Index since 1950 was 86.9%
while the worst was minus 39.2%. By extending the holding period to 30 years, the range of best and worst returns narrowed to 12.7% for
best and plus 7.1% for worst.
The charts below show the 1 month, 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 year trailing returns for the S&P/TSX Total Return Index for the 75 year period from 1950 to 2024. As the holding period gets longer, the returns become consistently more positive. The number of negative return periods drops off dramatically after 3 years (see table below). For example, there are only 15 negative holding periods for 5 year periods and none for the 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 year periods.
Best and Worst Annualized Returns
S&P/TSX Total Return Index
(Jan 1950 to Dec 2024)
Source: Toronto Stock Exchange
S&P/TSX Total Return Index
(Jan 1950 to Dec 2024)
Source: Toronto Stock Exchange
The charts below show the 1 month, 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 year trailing returns for the S&P/TSX Total Return Index for the 75 year period from 1950 to 2024. As the holding period gets longer, the returns become consistently more positive. The number of negative return periods drops off dramatically after 3 years (see table below). For example, there are only 15 negative holding periods for 5 year periods and none for the 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 year periods.
| Number of Periods With: | ||||
|
Holding Period |
Positive Returns |
Negative Returns |
||
| 1 mo. | (900 periods) Jan 01-31, 1950, Feb 1-28, 1950 … Dec 1 - 31, 2024 | 562 | 338 | |
| 1 yr | (888 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 51, Feb 50 - Feb 50 … Dec 23 - Dec 24 | 662 | 226 | |
| 3 yrs | (864 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 53, Feb 50 - Feb 53 … Dec 21 - Dec 24 | 785 | 79 | |
| 5 yrs | (840 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 55, Feb 50 - Feb 55 … Dec 19 - Dec 24 | 825 | 15 | |
| 10 yrs | (780 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 60, Feb 50 - Feb 60 … Dec 14 - Dec 24 | 780 | 0 | |
| 15 yrs | (720 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 65, Feb 50 - Feb 65 … Dec 09 - Dec 24 | 720 | 0 | |
| 20 yrs | (660 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 70, Feb 50 - Feb 70 … Dec 04 - Dec 24 | 660 | 0 | |
| 25 yrs | (600 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 75, Feb 50 - Feb 75 … Dec 99 - Dec 24 | 600 | 0 | |
| 30 yrs | (540 periods) Jan 50 - Jan 80, Feb 50 - Feb 80 … Dec 94 - Dec 24 | 540 | 0 | |
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Assumptions
Returns for all periods are measured using the closing month end values of the S&P/TSX Total Return Index from January 1950 to December 2024. The annual return is the annualized compound rate of return.
Disclaimer
Returns for all periods are measured using the closing month end values of the S&P/TSX Total Return Index from January 1950 to December 2024. The annual return is the annualized compound rate of return.
Disclaimer
